On Friday night in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou provides the latest heavyweight superfight in what is developing into a golden period for the fight game’s marquee weight class.
In October we had that Tyson Fury vs Ngannou blockbuster, followed by that massive ‘Day of Reckoning’ card in December – topped by Joshua and Deontay Wilder. Next it’s AJ vs Ngannou, and then Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk for all the marbles on May 18. Just wow.
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The most pressing matter now is Joshua’s next big task, one which on paper looks something of a mismatch to the untrained eye. Joshua (27-3) is a seasoned boxer, an Olympic gold medallist and a two-time unified heavyweight champion. He is also on a three-bout win streak after rebuilding from a second consecutive loss to Usyk in 2022.
However, Ngannou almost caused a major shock when he knocked Fury down in their bout – his first as a professional boxer – last October. It was a remarkable effort by Ngannou on the night, and plenty of fight fans actually had him winning that 10-rounder (though the history books will show a split decision points loss).
Despite not getting his hand raised there, Ngannou announced himself as a legitimate player on the heavyweight boxing scene – and he will bank another eye-watering payday when he tackles Joshua in the Kingdom.
Here we break down what Ngannou – arguably the hottest commodity in the heavyweight division right now – needs to do to upset the odds.
Why Ngannou the boxer is for real
It is difficult to remember the last time a fighter with an 0-1 professional record topped the bill in a PPV boxing event. However, Ngannou’s stock rose exponentially after that magnificent effort against Fury last year. Indeed, a focused Ngannou standing over a crumpled Fury during round four of their fight might have been THE boxing image of 2023.
The African may be a novice when it comes to the noble art, but he is a star of the mixed martial arts world and once upon a time he was the UFC heavyweight champion.
So it is worth remembering that Ngannou is not just someone they have plucked off the street, and this why he has been chalked up at around the 7/2 mark for victory here (for context he was around 7/1 to beat Fury).
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He’s a respected MMA champion who is known for his punching power. The phrase ‘a puncher’s chance’ is usually dropped rather hopefully by commentators or promoters when a fighter is considered somewhat out of their depth against a far more skilled and ring-savvy opponent.
However, in this instance that said phrase is 100% on the money. Ngannou hits like a truck and we know AJ can be hurt.
Fury may have been undercooked in terms of training for their fight if he did not perceive Ngannou as a legit threat. That said, it is not hyperbole to say that Francis was unsettling Fury with almost every blow he landed clean at Boulevard Hall in Riyadh. It was crazy to watch and will give the big man genuine hope that he can spring an upset here.
Joshua’s chin has been questioned ever since he suffered his first career loss against Andy Ruiz Jr back in 2019, and AJ was clearly annoyed when Ngannou alluded to this during their recent DAZN face-off, asking “Who has knocked me out?”
Ruiz did not put AJ to sleep when they met in New York in June 2019, but he did win by TKO and in doing so destroyed the Englishman’s air of invincibility.
Size really does matter for ‘The Predator’
Ngannou, for all his experience in combat sports, is only having his second pro boxing bout. That said, brute strength is brute strength whatever the discipline – and if the thickset Cameroonian catches Joshua clean he could definitely go.
That is easier said than done of course – as Joshua’s footwork is underrated – but Ngannou essentially manhandled Fury, a heavyweight behemoth, for 10 rounds during their 2023 clash.
Within the first minute of that Fury fight, it was clear that ‘The Gypsy King’ was shocked by just how strong Ngannou was. Ergo, one aspect of Ngannou’s game that should certainly not be overlooked is his physical strength when grappling on the inside. Joshua is two inches taller than Ngannou at 6ft 6in, but will likely be giving up at least a stone in weight on the night as an absolute minimum.
There is a reason professional boxers often employ mixed martial artists to work with them in training, and this is because of the physical strength they bring to clinches and other key inside work. This difference in strength was obvious whenever Ngannou and Fury got close, and even though Joshua is a bear of a man himself, he could be surprised by just how powerful Ngannou actually is in the clinches.
Ngannou can adapt
The fight against Fury was absolutely fascinating, not least in terms of how quickly the boxing novice got to grips with the fighter perceived as the best heavyweight on the planet. On the night, Ngannou displayed an impressive ability to throw the left hand straight – as a cross – from the southpaw stance, as well as throwing left hooks from the orthodox stance when the mood took him.
This ultimately confused Fury and could bamboozle Joshua, who while experienced has probably never tackled anyone like ‘The Predator’ before as an amateur or pro.
It was surreal to watch how Ngannou was able to present the kind of problems to Fury – who had himself bewitched and befuddled the likes of Wladimir Klitschko and Deontay Wilder in the past – that he did.
Ngannou’s movements were hard to read, hard to predict and as a result hard to counter. If he adopts the same tactics on March 8, that seldom seen unconventional style might work for him again in Saudi.
Going the distance
Before that Fury fight many observers – this writer included – felt that Ngannou, a hulk of a man who likes to throw hard shots and finish fights early, would at some point gas and be rendered vulnerable in the second half of the contest. Astonishingly though, the 37-year-old was every bit as dangerous in the last round as he had been in the first.
Whereas Fury appeared hurt (or at the very least flustered) by every power shot Ngannou landed, the same could not be said for Ngannou, who kept on trucking forward and showed a fantastic level of cardio fitness for the full 10 sessions.
By round two Ngannou was letting his hands go without any fear of what was coming back. A testament to his toughness, perhaps, yet what was also plain to see as the fight wore on was that Fury had nothing in his locker with which he could hurt Ngannou. For anyone who saw the vicious uppercut that Fury uncorked to end proceedings against Dillian Whyte in April 2022, this was difficult to comprehend
If Joshua hits him clean with a right and Ngannou does not flinch, how will AJ react?
Joshua cannot afford to lose this fight. He has ambitions of becoming a three-time heavyweight champion of the world and often talks about legacy. His most recent win over Otto Wallin in December was impressive enough to generate some real forward motion, and he is firmly back in position at the heavyweight boxing top table.
Defeat in this one however would slam the door firmly shut on those ambitions to be a 3 x King, perhaps forever. To this end, this is something of a free hit for the former UFC champion, and that makes him even more dangerous.
Verdict – a dangerous assignment for AJ
In boxing as in life, when all is said and done, more is often said than done. However, Ngannou has been carrying himself with a quiet yet unmistakable air of confidence ahead of this one.
We must keep in mind that he produced arguably the most electrifying heavyweight boxing debut in history last year to push Fury to the wire and one judge – Ed Garner – actually decided that Ngannou had beaten ‘The Gypsy King’ by a score of 96-95 after 10 rounds. Talk about a moral victory.
Joshua holds all the aces when it comes to boxing IQ and experience, but if his concentration levels waver on March 8 – even for a second – Ngannou has the power to switch out his lights.
Francis is an affable man, but he has superhuman punch power and proved in his last fight that he will not fold nor bend under the bright lights. An upset KO/TKO win here for the underdog would be a shock, but it would be foolhardy to completely dismiss the older man’s chances.
